Archive for the ‘Predictions’ Category

“The Important Vote on Tuesday!”

All eyes should be on Tuesday’s vote: a turning point for America.

No, not the debt ceiling and spending cut vote that may or may not occur in Congress, but an even more important vote—the vote in Wisconsin.

The vote to win back democracy. To smack down the plutocratic oligarchy that invaded Wisconsin. To fight off the move to fascism.

Both votes are important in their impact on politics and economics; both microcosms of the agony and the struggles Americans are forced to endure.

One vote may mean the collapse of the world economy while the other could signal the reawakening of democracy—a return to ‘we the people’—in a state with a history of progressive democratic values.

How important are the recall elections in the Badger State?

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Posted in Call to Action, Election 2012, Opinion, Politics, Predictions, Wisconsin | Comments Off

“Recall the Wisconsin Six!”

Wisconsin’s recall election has become a national event!

Wisconsinites are angry over new Governor Scott Walker’s deception and are not only voicing their opinion outside the Capitol in Madison, but taking their grievances to the ballot boxes.

Democrats in the Badger State successfully petitioned the recall of six Republican Senators who will be challenged for their Senate seats next month in a special election. The Democrats easily collected more signatures than were required for the Government Accountability Board to certify the results.

Not to be outdone, Republicans, with the help of out-of-state signature gathering agencies and buying signatures, managed to get three Democrats on the ballot.

Why are the Wisconsin people doing this?

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Posted in Call to Action, Opinion, Politics, Predictions, UnAmerican, Wisconsin | Comments Off

“Stimulating a Dead Economy”

My newest article is now available on The Huffington Post. Click on the HuffPo linke to read it there.

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The U.S. economy is surviving only because of over-stimulation.

We’re living on fumes in this country, and the pursuit of happiness has come to an end for millions of families!

Main Street is still suffering. But, the Market is on Viagra, shored up by QE2, the Fed program to buy hundreds of billions of dollars in U.S. Treasury Bonds. As QE2 winds down, and the economy falters, the discussion turns to the possibility of QE3.

A tremendous number of band aids have been administered to keep the U.S. economy from hemorrhaging; to prevent not only a domestic collapse, but a global one.

Each attempt to divert a financial disaster has had varying levels of success; many failing to achieve their intended goals.

Why have we needed so much stimulus?

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Posted in Economy, HuffPost Articles, Predictions, Wall Street | Comments Off

Quick Hit: “Will Queen James Miss His Coronation?”

It appears that LaBron can’t handle the heat!

James has not turned out to be the Superstar the owners of the Miami Heat had hoped he would be and the SuperTeam faces elimination tonight at the hands of the seasoned Dallas Mavericks.

That is the outcome most of the fans outside the South Beach area hope for. Most of the nation has grown to despise LeBron and the Heat, and would celebrate their failure.

As Dwayne Wade and Dirk Nowitzki show what superstars bring to the Finals, James exhibits the same weakness he displayed in his final appearance with the Cavs.

He quits!

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Posted in Predictions, Quick Hits, Sports | Comments Off

“The Next Looming Bank Crisis: De-leveraging!”

This new article has been posted on The Huffington Post today, Wednesday, December 1st. Click on the link to see the article on The Huffington Post.

Big Banks have another major crisis growing beneath the surface!

Banks are again on the verge of a damaging financial crisis and will plead for help from taxpayers despite it being the product of their own greed. Financial institutions are horrible corporate citizens.

As if the Big Banks, after being saved by the taxpayers, The Federal Reserve, and FASB (Financial Accounting Standards Board), didn’t have enough to worry about with the ongoing foreclosure nightmare possibly costing over a hundred billion dollars, another problem is brewing that is not being talked about.

De-leveraging!

Huge banks still have huge problems masked by TARP, The Fed’s quantitative easing, FASB’s change of Mark to Market accounting, and changes as a result of FinReg passed by Congress.

Bank’s problems include: questionable foreclosure procedures, defaulting mortgages, the repurchase of toxic assets, investors demanding recourse for fraudulent securitized instruments, a potential change in FASB rules forcing aggressive markdowns, and exposure to the European crisis.

Each element, on its own, could change the landscape of banking and plunge us into another financial crisis. The convergence of any two, especially with the uncertainty of the foreclosure mess, could destroy the banking system.

Is the banking system really that fragile?

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Posted in Banking, Economy, Finance, HuffPost Articles, Predictions, Too Big to Bail | Comments Off

“An Economic View Into a New Decade”

The financial decade has ended and all evidence points to 10 years of nothing. That’s right, the stock market was actually down during the last decade!

A new decade has begun and with it comes high hopes for a much better decade than the last. At least for the market. The big question is, what will the next decade bring and what will the best bets be for investors?

As we entered 2000, a new millennium, we had what appeared to be a thriving economy. Jobs were plentiful, tech was booming, the country had a budget surplus, and a deficit of only $5 trillion.

A decade later we have unemployment at 10%, tech has leveled off and has moved to selling toys and gadgets, and the deficit climbed to $12 trillion. Banks are failing at an accelerating rate and big banks, those ‘Too Big to Fail’ after being pulled from the abyss with taxpayer money, are cheating the economy at a greater level than at any time since the 1920’s.

A lost decade? The worst in our nation’s history!

Are the prospects for a more prosperous decade any better than they were at the beginning of 2000?

Have conditions really improved? Read the rest of this entry »

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Posted in Economy, Predictions | 2 Comments »

Recession? Over? When?

In July of 2008 I wrote a humorous look at the economy and sent it to Harpers Magazine.

It would be another 6 months before the Bureau of Labor Statistics would determine that we had been in a recession for the past year. And many in the Markets, Congress, and the administration were surprised—surprised we were in a recession? Surprised we had been in a recession for over a year?

Amazing!

But Main Street knew. Main Street felt it, and is still feeling it. For many hard-working Americans—especially those that are losing their jobs in huge numbers every week—the recession has not ended. It seems it has only ended on Wall Street, at the Big Banks, AIG, and on CNBC!

Now that the current administration, some economists, a whole hoard of Wall Street analysts, financial television and radio, and the wing nuts on the right have declared an end to the recession I felt it would be a good time to repost the article.

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Read my prescient piece on recession from July of 2008: Read the rest of this entry »

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Posted in Economy, Predictions, Uncategorized | Comments Off

Quick Hit: “Vision, Not Hindsight”

Since its establishment, February of 2009, It’s Worth an Opinion has been dedicated to vision, not just hindsight!

My efforts were focused on presenting the information the media either ignored or missed; not just the headlines which are generally presented in a positive or optimistic way. It has not been my intent to be contrarian, but to research deeper; to root out the whole political or economic story in order to present a more informed and more truthful picture of the state of this country.

There has been an undercurrent—ugly in many places—that goes virtually unreported. Investigative journalism, with the exception of the internet, is virtually dead. News organizations: newspapers, magazines, television, cable, and radio are focused on the bottom-line and are failing to do the job for which they were designed—for which they were licensed; reporting and providing truthful and valid information to the American people.

I added The Cutting Edge blog to the web site on June 24th to present a comprehensive and organized format in which to view and read my opinions and predictions. It’s purpose, like the initial web site, was and is designed to inform. My mission then, remains my mission today.

No one is paying for this service or my time. My purpose is altruistic and is an effort to afford change for those that cannot defend or protect themselves. It behooves each of you to read my introduction of the blog: “Welcome to the Cutting Edge.”

Freedom of speech is a valuable tool in a democracy. I applaud the ability to exercise that freedom, and will continue to raise my voice until things change to return this country to the leader it can and should be.

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Posted in Opinion, Predictions | Comments Off

“The Shipping Blues”

U.S. Markets continue to flirt with 10,000 and 1,100, shrugging off the fundamentals.

Trader’s are looking to the future; to a global improvement that will justify the unrealistic rises in the indexes. But what happens if the future doesn’t exist? A vaporous dream of hope that disappears leaving everyone empty?

Third quarter earnings are a pivotal indicator and the hopes for a holiday season, better than last year, is almost palpable on the floor of the exchanges.

Many of my articles have been cynical of the perceived recovery, the health of banks, and the rise in the stock markets. Rather than cynicism I like to view it as realism. A common sense look at what is really happening.

With many indicators moving at hyper-speed it is increasingly difficult to keep up with all of the complex elements of the economy and what affect each will have on consumers, businesses, investors, policy, and the markets. Today we’re faced with rapidly changing information. As a result I spend too much time reading, digging, watching, analyzing, evaluating, and writing.

But everything I need to know for The Shipping Blues is found on the deep blue ocean, the hard steel rails, and endless ribbons of asphalt and cement stretching across terra firma.

The best indicator of the future economy is conceivably shipping. And right now many shipping companies have “The Shipping Blues.”

What are The Shipping Blues? Read the rest of this entry »

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Posted in Economy, Markets, Predictions, Shipping | Comments Off

“A Jobless Recovery?” Not This Time!

September’s jobs number was a big disappointment for those that are hoping for positive job creation by the end of this year. The job losses for September slipped back with 263,000 non-farm payroll jobs lost after a better than expected smaller decline in August.

The August number was revised with 15,000 fewer job losses to 201,000, from previously reported 216,000. But July was revised upward adding 28,000 more lost jobs bringing the total to 301,000. for a total of 13,000 more job losses for those two months.

Much has been said about the economy already recovering and the possibility that this, like the last recession, will be a jobless recovery.

Not this time!

Past recessions were not confronted with the problems that exist in this one. The confluence of personal and corporate losses exceed those of the past three recessions combined. Though the downward economic spiral has been slowed, the underlying causes of the financial collapse still exist and are troublesome for any healthy recovery.

Unemployment increased to 9.8% and, as many have stated, is headed for double digits. The highest level of those unemployed during the most recent recessions was approximately 6%.

In previous recessions the job losses were mostly centered around a few industries. But during this recession there has been a widespread decline in all areas of employment: labor, manufacturing, and service. As a result there are few, if any, sectors to help pull us out of this economic quagmire.

What will spur a jobless recovery? Read the rest of this entry »

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Posted in Economy, Jobs, Predictions, Uncategorized | 2 Comments »